Economic Update

Weekly Economic Update for October 14, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group


THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stock prices pushed higher last week, as investors remained hyper-focused on any new developments with the U.S. trade negotiations with China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.91%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.62%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.93% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 2.28%. 1,2

Trade Winds

For nearly two years, investors’ moods have seemed to swing with each twist in the ongoing trade saga between the U.S. and China. Last week was no different.

On Tuesday, stock prices fell sharply on concerns that U.S.-China trade tensions had escalated. The White House announced the addition of 28 new Chinese companies to its list of firms that are banned from doing business in the U.S. Later in the day, White House officials confirmed that they had implemented travel bans on selected Chinese officials. 3,4

But prices bounced back Thursday and surged higher Friday on White House reports that suggested the trade talks between the two countries were “going really well.” Near the close Friday, the White House confirmed the U.S. has come to a “very substantial phase one deal” with China. 5,6

 

Quarterly Earnings

Investors may start to get a better glimpse into third-quarter earnings this week, as more than 150 companies are expected to report on their operations. 7

 

As “earnings season” gets underway, some attention may shift from the U.S.-China trade negotiations and toward company reports.

 

What’s Next

Some U.S. financial markets will be open, and some will be closed, on Monday, October 14, in observance of the federal holiday Columbus Day. The U.S. bonds markets and most banks will be closed. But the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ will be open for regular hours.


TIP OF THE WEEK
A mental trick you can use to encourage consistent retirement saving – think of your monthly retirement contribution like a bill you need to pay.



THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: September Retail Sales are reported before the markets open.

Thursday: Housing Starts for September are released. A “start” is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey. The survey can provide insights into the manufacturing sector.

Source: Econoday, October 11, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), The Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

Wednesday: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), United Rentals (URI), Winnebago Industries (WGO)

Thursday: Morgan Stanley (MS), PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Friday: Coca-Cola (KO), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), American Express (AXP)

Source: Zacks, October 11, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.


QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Employ thy time well, if thou meanest to get leisure.”

BENJAMIN FRANKLIN


Weekly Recap 10-14-2019.png

 

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 – wsj.com/market-data [10/11/19]
2 – quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [10/11/19]
3 – tinyurl.com/y29u6m2u [10/8/19]
4 – tinyurl.com/yyj9bh66 [10/8/19]
5 – cnbc.com/2019/10/10/trump-says-china-trade-talks-are-going-very-well.html?&qsearchterm=really%20well%20trump [10/10/19]
6 – cnbc.com/2019/10/11/trump-says-us-has-come-to-a-substantial-phase-one-deal-with-china.html [10/11/19]
7 – zacks.com/earnings/earnings-calendar [10/11/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [10/11/19]   

quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [10/11/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [10/11/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019 [10/11/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [10/11/19]

 

Weekly Economic Update for October 7, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group


THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

The fourth quarter started with a mixed week for equities. A slip for an index of U.S. manufacturing activity proved to be a market mover, more so than the latest jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.92% for the week; the S&P 500, 0.33%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite improved 0.54%. Overseas stocks pulled back: the MSCI EAFE index dipped 2.60%. 1,2

 

Attention on Manufacturing

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 47.8 in September, its lowest level in ten years. Traders worried that the number reflected weakening business confidence. ISM’s latest Non-Manufacturing PMI also declined, but the 52.6 reading indicated growth in the service sector last month.

ISM does state that when a PMI is above 43.2, the overall economy is typically still expanding, even if a specific sector is not. Another widely watched Factory PMI, maintained by IHS Markit, rose to a five-month peak of 51.1 in September; a number above 50 indicates factory output is increasing. 3,4 

 

Lowest Unemployment Rate in 50 Years

The Department of Labor said that employers added 136,000 net new workers in September. Unemployment was at 3.5%, a level last seen in December 1969. The U-6 jobless rate, which counts both the unemployed and underemployed, fell to a 19-year low of 6.9%.

Monthly job creation has averaged 161,000 so far in 2019, down from 223,000 in 2018. This may reflect the challenge companies face trying to fill job openings in an economy with so little unemployment. Annualized wage growth fell to 2.9% in September, the smallest yearly advance recorded since July 2018. 5

 

What’s Next

Trade representatives from the U.S. and China return to the negotiating table on Thursday; their meeting is scheduled to conclude on Friday. Any news stemming from their talks could quickly affect equity markets here and abroad.


TIP OF THE WEEK

If you are nearing retirement age, ask your employer if it allows phased retirements. More companies are offering this option, which gives a worker the flexibility to shift from full-time to part-time hours on the way to retiring.


THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Denver.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its September meeting.

Thursday: The Bureau of Labor Statistics presents the August Consumer Price Index, showing monthly and yearly inflation data.

Friday: The University of Michigan offers its preliminary October Consumer Sentiment Index, a measure of consumer confidence levels.

Source: Econoday, Federal Reserve, October 4, 2019

The Econoday and Federal Reserve economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Domino’s (DPZ)

Thursday: Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Friday: Citigroup (C), Fastenal (FAST)

Source: Zacks.com, October 4, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.


QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“When anger rises, think of the consequences.”

Kong Qui (Confucius)


Weekly Recap 10-07-2019.png


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Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)



This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [10/4/19]   

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [10/4/19]

3 - tinyurl.com/y296rohg [10/2/19]

4 - investing.com/news/economic-indicators/newsbreak-ism-services-index-tumbles-to-3year-low-1991459 [10/3/19]

5 - tinyurl.com/y6s8emsr [10/4/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [10/4/19]   

quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [10/4/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [10/4/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019 [10/4/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [10/4/19]

 

Weekly Economic Update September 30, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks retreated last week. Traders worried that the formal impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump might distract White House officials from their pursuit of a trade deal with China and shift the focus of Congress away from consideration of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Also, news broke Friday that the White House was considering restricting levels of U.S. investment in Chinese firms.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500. Blue chips declined 0.43% week-over-week, while the S&P fell 1.01%, and the Nasdaq dipped 2.19%. The MSCI EAFE index, tracking developed overseas stock markets, lost 0.89%. 1,2,3

 

Incomes Grow, Spending Slows

Data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed household incomes rising 0.4% in August. Consumer spending improved just 0.1% last month, however; that was the smallest advance in six months.

Another BEA report noted that “real” consumer spending (that is, consumer spending adjusted for inflation) rose 4.6% during the second quarter. 4,5 

 

A Slip in Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 125.1 for September. That compares to a reading of 134.2 in August. Lynn Franco, the CB’s director of economic indicators, wrote that “the escalation in trade and tariff tensions in late August appears to have rattled consumers. However, this pattern of uncertainty and volatility has persisted for much of the year and it appears confidence is plateauing.”

In contrast, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index ended September at 93.2, an improvement from a final August mark of 89.8. 6,7

 

WHAT’S AHEAD

On October 10, the Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the 2020 cost of living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security retirement benefits. Earlier this month, Bureau of Labor Statistics yearly inflation data pointed to a possible 2020 COLA in the range of 1.6%-1.7%. 8


TIP OF THE WEEK

When one or both spouses come into a marriage with considerable individual assets, a separate property trust may be worth considering, if only as a mechanism to try and insulate assets of one spouse from creditors of the other.


THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Institute for Supply Management presents its September Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector, a barometer of U.S. manufacturing health.

Wednesday: ADP, the payroll processor, releases its September National Employment Report.

Thursday: ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI arrives, reporting on the state of the U.S. service sector.

Friday: The Department of Labor’s September jobs report appears, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives a keynote speech at a Fed event in Washington D.C.

Source: Econoday, September 27, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Wednesday: Lennar (LEN), Paychex (PAYX)

Thursday: Constellation Brands (STZ), Costco (COST), PepsiCo (PEP)

Source: Zacks, September 27, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.


QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Each of us is full of too many wheels, screws, and valves to permit us to judge one another on a first impression or by two or three external signs.”

ANTON CHEKHOV

Weekly Recap 9-30-2019.png


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Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)


This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - cnn.com/2019/09/27/investing/dow-stock-market-today-oil/index.html [9/27/19]

2 - wsj.com/market-data [9/27/19]   

3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [9/27/19]

4 - marketwatch.com/story/consumer-spending-barely-rises-in-august-as-americans-save-more-2019-09-27 [9/27/19]

5 - investing.com/economic-calendar [9/27/19]

6 - conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm [9/24/19]

7 - marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-rebounds-in-september-but-americans-more-anxious-2019-09-27 [9/27/19]

8 - tinyurl.com/y2n8uvng [9/8/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [9/27/19]      

quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [9/27/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [9/27/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [9/27/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [9/27/19]

 

Weekly Economic Update

Presented by Beacon Financial Group


THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Investors reacted to two major news items last week, one far more of a surprise than the other. The Federal Reserve did indeed make a rate cut, matching Wall Street expectations. Drone strikes on two of the world’s largest oil fields brought a shock to the global oil market.  

At Friday’s closing bell, stocks wound up with weekly losses after news broke that Chinese trade officials were heading home from the U.S. sooner than planned. The S&P 500 retreated 0.51% week-over-week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.72%. In developed foreign markets, shares tracked by the MSCI EAFE index fell 0.31%. 1,2,3

 

Another Quarter-Point Cut

Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 7-3 to lower the benchmark interest rate by another 0.25%, to a range of 1.75% to 2.00%.

While traders looked for signs of future guidance on monetary policy, little emerged from the latest Fed policy statement and Fed chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference. The updated dot-plot forecast showed that seven Fed officials anticipated at least one more cut before 2020, while ten did not.

 

Oil Prices Jump

As last week began, crude oil futures spiked in response to an attack that interrupted roughly 5% of the world’s oil production. The value of West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, spiked 14.7% in a day, starting at $8.05 and reaching $62.90 by Monday’s close.

This was oil’s biggest one-day leap since September 2008. Prices came down from there: Friday, WTI crude settled at $58.48. 5,6

 

FINAL THOUGHT

So, what day last week saw the biggest loss or gain for stocks? Not Monday, when the market absorbed news of the Saudi oil field strike. Not Wednesday, when the Fed rate cut occurred. Instead, it was Friday, when the S&P 500 lost only 0.49%. It just goes to show that stocks may ride through seemingly market-moving events with little daily change. 7


TIP OF THE WEEK

If you are 50 or older, remember that you can take advantage of catch-up contributions in your retirement accounts. Under the current catch-up rules, set by the Internal Revenue Service, you can contribute an extra $1,000 to a Roth or traditional IRA and an extra $6,000 to the typical workplace retirement plan.



THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Conference Board’s September Consumer Confidence Survey.

Wednesday: August new home sales data from the Census Bureau.

Thursday: The federal government’s third estimate of second-quarter economic growth.

Friday: August personal spending numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and September’s final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, measuring consumer confidence levels.

Source: Econoday, September 20, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: AutoZone (AZO), Cintas (CTAS), Nike (NKE)

Thursday: Accenture (ACN), Carnival (CCL), Micron Technology (MU)

Source: Zacks, September 20, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.


QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The strongest natures, when they are influenced, submit the most unreservedly; it is perhaps a sign of their strength.”


Weekly Recap 9-23-2019.png


Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)



This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - marketwatch.com/story/dow-skids-to-friday-lows-amid-reports-that-chinas-delegation-has-canceled-a-tariff-related-visit-2019-09-20 [9/20/19]     

2 - wsj.com/market-data [9/20/19]   

3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [9/20/19]

4 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-cuts-rates-on-7-3-vote-gives-mixed-signals-on-next-move-idUSKBN1W32H7 [9/18/19]

5 - marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-10-surge-after-saudi-attack-puts-it-on-track-for-the-biggest-daily-gain-in-312-years-2019-09-15 [9/16/19]

6 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html [9/20/19]

7 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [9/20/19]      

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [9/20/19]      

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [9/20/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [9/20/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [9/20/19]

 

 

Weekly Economic Update for September 16, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group


THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks edged toward all-time peaks during a relatively calm week marked by easing trade tensions. Friday marked the eighth straight daily advance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. 1

Small-cap shares, as tracked by the Russell 2000 index, rose 4.85% in five days. The S&P 500 improved 0.96% for the week, while the Dow and Nasdaq Composite respectively advanced 1.57% and 0.91%. Foreign shares added 1.22%, according to the MSCI EAFE index. 2-4

 

A Delay for Planned October Tariff Hikes

Existing tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports were slated to rise from 25% to 30% on October 1, but the White House decided Thursday to postpone the increase until October 15, in a “gesture of good will” honoring a request from Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

Bloomberg reported last week that some White House officials were considering an “interim” trade agreement that could pause some import taxes on Chinese products, so long as China agrees to buy specific U.S. crops and address intellectual property concerns. 5 

 

More Risk Appetite

Last week’s conciliatory gestures between the U.S. and China influenced the bond market. By Friday’s close, the 10-year Treasury yield had climbed to 1.90%, up 0.35% for the week after a big selloff. (A rise in bond yields generally reflects a drop in bond prices.) 6

 

Inflation Pressure Increases

Yearly core inflation reached a 13-month peak of 2.4% in August, according to the federal government’s Consumer Price Index. Core inflation (which excludes volatile food and fuel costs) has now increased for three straight months. 7

 

WHAT’S NEXT

This week, traders await the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement. Whether the Fed chooses to cut short-term interest rate, any guidance in the statement will be highly scrutinized, as Wall Street is eager to discern any hints about whether the Fed is prepared to continue cutting short-term rates.


TIP OF THE WEEK


Smart small-business owners hire a bookkeeper soon after launching their companies. Organized books can point out whether a business is successful and identify the areas in which it can improve.



THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement is scheduled for 2:00pm EST, and Fed chair Jerome Powell is slated to address the media at a subsequent press conference.

Thursday: The National Association of Realtors issues its August existing home sales report.

Source: Econoday / Federal Reserve, September 13, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX)

Wednesday: General Mills (GIS)

Thursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Source: Zacks, September 13, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.


QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“You cannot shake hands with a clenched fist.”

INDIRA GHANDI

Weekly Recap 9-16-2019.png


Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)



This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - cnbc.com/2019/09/13/stock-markets-dow-sp-500-close-to-all-time-highs-on-wall-street.html [9/13/19]   

2 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell/ [9/13/19]   

3 - wsj.com/market-data [9/13/19]   

4 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [9/13/19]

5 - tinyurl.com/y2obyd4e [9/12/19]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [9/13/19]

7 - investing.com/economic-calendar/core-cpi-736 [9/12/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [9/13/19]   

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [9/13/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019 [9/13/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [9/13/19]



Monthly Economic Update for August, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group


THE MONTH IN BRIEF

The stock market had a tumultuous August, reacting to the sudden devaluation of the Chinese yuan and the escalation of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Ultimately, investors seemed more interested in risk aversion: the S&P 500 lost 1.81% for the month. Demand for bonds helped to send Treasury yields lower; prices of precious metals climbed. Away from the markets, monthly personal spending and retail sales gains were strong. 1


DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Tariffs and trade issues remained front and center in the Wall Street conversation. On August 1, the White House announced a 10% import tax on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods coming to U.S. shores. (Most of these products are so-called “final” consumer goods, like clothing and shoes.) In a nod to importers and retailers, the White House stated on August 13 that this 10% tariff would be delayed until December 15 for certain products: toys, consumer electronics, and other items that are big sellers during the holiday shopping season. Effective December 15, tariffs will impact nearly all Chinese imports to the U.S. 2

China soon retaliated, and the U.S. quickly responded. On August 25, China unveiled a plan to place tariffs on an additional $75 billion of U.S. goods. As part of the plan, import taxes on American-made cars and trucks would jump by 30%. Just hours later, the White House announced that the tariffs planned for September 1 and December 15 would rise by 5% to 15%, respectively, and that the 25% tariff currently in place on $250 billion of Chinese imports would rise to 30% on October 1. 2

A few summer statistics from Main Street seemed to contradict anxieties that the economy might be slowing down. Consumer spending advanced 0.6% in July, and that complemented July’s 0.7% gain in overall retail sales. Core retail sales (which exclude auto and gas purchases) were up 1.0% in the seventh month of the year. 3,4

A key measure of consumer confidence seemed strong: the Conference Board’s monthly index was at 135.1 in August, beating the 129.5 consensus forecast of a Reuters poll of economists. The CB’s present situation sub-index (surveying consumers’ view of the economy right now) hit 177.2, the best reading since November 2000. 3,5

All this said, other indicators hinted that manufacturing activity might have hit a soft patch. The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector declined to half a point to 51.2 in July, and the federal government reported July retreats of 0.2% for industrial output, 0.4% for factory production, and 0.4% for core durable goods orders, which do not include the volatile transportation category (total durable goods orders, however, were up 2.1%). ISM’s monthly PMI for the service sector also lost ground, slipping 1.4 points in July to 53.7. 4

The labor market added 164,000 net new jobs during July, according to the Department of Labor. (The revised June number: 193,000.) Unemployment remained at 3.7%. The U-6 rate, which counts both the unemployed and underemployed, fell a respective 0.2% to 7.0%. 4

The Bureau of Economic Analysis delivered its third (“final”) estimate of second-quarter economic growth in late August: 2.0%. That number beat the 1.9% consensus forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch. 3

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s spoke on August 23 at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole banking conference. Powell said the Fed was “carefully watching developments” and would “act as appropriate” if U.S. economic conditions weaken. The next Fed policy meeting is less than two weeks away. Wall Street wonders if Fed policymakers might be inclined to make a rate cut; comments from multiple Fed officials at Jackson Hole did not point to a consensus on that matter. 6

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

On August 5, China shocked financial markets worldwide by devaluing its main currency, the yuan, to a level unseen since the 2008 credit crisis. The rationale for this move was clear: by cheapening the yuan, China could make its exports more affordable for American buyers, effectively countering tariffs. Reaction on Wall Street was swift: U.S. stocks had their worst day of the year. The Department of the Treasury immediately called China a “currency manipulator.” With China’s economy growing at its slowest pace in 30 years, this could invite greater inflation. 7

In another surprise, Boris Johnson, the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister, announced that Queen Elizabeth had agreed to a sudden, outside-the-box political idea. On August 28, Johnson said that he had asked the Queen to suspend Parliament for a month beginning in mid-September, with U.K. lawmakers reconvening on October 14. That would give Parliament two weeks to consider and approve a Brexit strategy. A no-deal Brexit – the kind Johnson favors – may have a better chance of passage under such a tight timeline. 8

Also notable: the decline in government bond yields in key countries. Demand for bonds has sent prices of government-issued notes higher, and as a result, their interest rates have declined. Last month, roughly a quarter of the global bond market was invested in government notes bearing negative yields. 9

 

WORLD MARKETS

Many foreign indices took August losses, but there were some exceptions. In Russia, the Moex advanced 0.20%, and in Canada, the TSX Composite gained 0.22%. Mexico’s Bolsa registered a major August gain, rising 4.31%. 10

The emerging markets were hard hit last month. In fact, MSCI’s Emerging Markets index took a 5.08% fall. MSCI’s World index lost 2.24%. Hong Kong was beset by unrest, and its Hang Seng benchmark dove 8.60% for the month. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 2.24%; South Korea’s Kospi, 3.48%; the Singapore STI, 7.28%. Even Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 4.63%. European benchmarks were also mostly in the red: Spain’s IBEX 35 was 1.93%; Germany’s DAX, 1.71%; the FTSE Eurofirst 300, 1.55%. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 tumbled 5.75% last month. France’s CAC 40 lost just 0.56%. Two losses to note in South America: Brazil’s Bovespa declined 0.67%, and Argentina’s Merval slid 41.49%. 10,11

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

At the closing bell on the month’s last trading day (August 30), an ounce of gold was worth $1,529.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange; an ounce of silver, $18.48. Gold gained 7.76% in August, and silver, 12.92%. Another key precious metal, platinum, advanced 6.86%. One of the world’s key semi-precious metals, copper, fell 4.43% last month. 12

West Texas Intermediate crude oil ended August at $55.16 per barrel on the NYMEX, down 4.72% on the month. The value of unleaded gasoline fell 19.68%. Heating oil lost 6.42%, but natural gas increased 1.83%. Turning to crops, losses were prevalent: soybeans lost 0.61%; coffee, 5.23%; cotton, 6.86%; wheat, 7.50%; cocoa, 7.53%; sugar, 8.19%; corn, 10.81%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.41% for the month to 98.92. 12,13

 

REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates went lower in August, influenced by declining bond yields. In Freddie Mac’s August 29 Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the interest rate for the average 30-year, fixed-rate home loan was 3.58%. A 15-year, fixed-rate home loan carried an average interest rate of 3.06%. Back on August 1, they were respectively at 3.75% and 3.20%. 14

30-year and 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

As for home buying, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales improved by 2.5% in July, a nice change from the 1.3% (revised) retreat of June. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales fell 12.8% during July, as opposed to a 20.9% climb a month earlier. 4

The latest 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June) measured 2.1% year-over-year home price appreciation, down from 2.4% in the prior edition. Housing starts fell 4.0% in July, but the Census Bureau did report an 8.4% increase for building permits. 4


TIP OF THE MONTH

Some insurers are now offering usage-based auto insurance. If you happen to drive less than 10,000 to 15,000 miles a year, you may be eligible for a discount on your policy.


LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

August was notable for its volatility. The S&P 500 gained or lost 1% during nine of the first 17 trading days of the month. (Back in 2017, there were eight such trading sessions all year.) 15

All three of the major U.S. equity indices lost ground last month. The S&P ended August at 2,926.46; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 26,403.28; the Nasdaq Composite, at 7,962.88. 16-18

Aug 2019 Recap.png

With the third quarter about to give way to the fourth, investors are mulling a few questions. Can the U.S-China tariff fight be resolved this year or next? Is the economy actually showing signs of decelerating? Will Treasury yields stabilize? What will the Federal Reserve do? The answers to some of these questions may take months to surface. This month, Wall Street may see more of the choppiness that characterized August. The market is still a few weeks away from the next earnings season, so fundamental economic indicators (hiring, consumer spending, consumer confidence, manufacturing and service sector growth, retail sales) may exert some influence on stocks. Investors worldwide are waiting to see what direction the Fed will take with interest rates when it meets on September 17-18.

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

“The whole point of being alive is to evolve into the complete person you were intended to be.”

OPRAH WINFREY


UPCOMING RELEASES

Here are the major scheduled news items and events for the rest of the month: the August ADP employment report and Challenger job-cut report (9/5), the Department of Labor’s latest monthly jobs report (9/6), the August wholesale inflation numbers (9/11), the August consumer inflation reading (9/12), August retail sales and the preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (9/13), the next Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement and subsequent press conference, plus numbers on August housing starts and building permits (9/18), August existing home sales (9/19), the Conference Board’s September Consumer Confidence Index (9/24), August new home sales (9/25), August pending home sales and the federal government’s third estimate of second-quarter economic expansion (9/26), and then August consumer spending and durable goods orders, plus the final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (9/27).

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Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500 [8/30/19]

2 - piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trump-trade-war-china-date-guide [8/30/19]

3 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic?mod=economy-politics [8/30/19]

4 - investing.com/economic-calendar [8/30/19]

5 - cnbc.com/2019/08/27/us-consumer-confidence-august-2019-index-dips.html [8/27/19]

6 - marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-carefully-watching-developments-and-will-act-as-appropriate-2019-08-23-10103027 [8/23/19]

7 - tinyurl.com/yy9jnbgm [8/9/19]    

8 - tinyurl.com/y32artr3 [8/28/19]

9 - cnbc.com/2019/08/20/investing-in-the-strange-negative-yield-world-its-very-hard-to-wrap-your-arms-around.html [8/20/19]

10 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [8/30/19]

11 - msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [8/30/19]

12 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [8/30/19]

13 - marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [8/30/19]

14 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [8/29/19]

15 - cnbc.com/2019/08/23/week-ahead-stocks-could-be-rocky-on-trade-economy.html [8/23/19]

16 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [8/30/19]

17 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [8/30/19]

 

18 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [8/30/19]

19 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18]

20 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [8/30/19]

Weekly Economic Update for September 2, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Fears of an impasse in the U.S.-China trade dispute lessened last week. While additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were scheduled to take effect on September 1, China’s government communicated that it would refrain from taking retaliatory measures for the moment.

U.S. stock benchmarks advanced during the week. The S&P 500 rose 2.79% across five trading days, and the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively gained 2.72% and 3.02%. The MSCI EAFE international index added just 0.25%. 1,2

  

Positive News in the Trade Dispute

Thursday, a spokesman for China’s commerce ministry said that negotiations could resume this month, and that discussions need to focus on “removing the new tariffs to prevent escalation.” 

In addition, officials in Beijing indicated they would hold off on responding to the U.S. tariff hikes announced Friday by the White House. 3

  

Mixed Consumer Confidence Signals

The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index was at 135.1 in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had projected a reading of 129.5. Consumers’ view of the present economic situation was the best since November 2000.

On the other hand, the University of Michigan’s monthly Consumer Sentiment Index (based on a different collection of survey data) dropped 8.6 points during August to 89.8; that was its biggest monthly descent in nearly seven years. 4,5

 

WHAT’s NEXT

After a pause for the Labor Day holiday, U.S. financial markets have an abbreviated trading week. The August jobs report may influence Friday’s Wall Street session, and any news pertaining to U.S.-China trade talks could also influence the markets.

TIP OF THE WEEK

If you still receive paper bank statements, you should know that there could be a financial perk for going digital: some financial institutions may offer you lower fees in return for your choice to manage your money online.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Institute for Supply Management releases its August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the factory sector, assessing U.S. manufacturing activity.

Thursday: ISM presents its August PMI for the service sector, and payroll giant ADP publishes its latest private-sector employment snapshot.

Friday: The Department of Labor offers its August employment report.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, August 30, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Wednesday: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Slack Technologies (WORK)

Thursday: Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

Source: Zacks, August 30, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Take rest; a field that has rested gives a bountiful crop.”

OVID

Weekly Recap.png

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [8/30/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [8/30/19]

3 - marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-up-over-250-points-as-china-tamps-down-fears-of-further-trade-war-escalation-2019-08-29 [8/29/19]

4 - cnbc.com/2019/08/27/us-consumer-confidence-august-2019-index-dips.html [8/27/19]

5 - sca.isr.umich.edu/ [8/30/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [8/30/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [8/30/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [8/30/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [8/30/19]

 

Weekly Economic Update 8/26/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Traders assumed that the week’s biggest news event would be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole banking conference. Instead, China seized the headlines by announcing new tariffs on U.S. goods.

Domestic stocks ended up lower for the week. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.83%; the S&P 500, 1.44%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.99%. International stocks posted a weekly gain: the MSCI EAFE benchmark rose 0.96%. 1,2

  

Beijing Plans New Tariffs

Friday morning, China’s finance ministry stated it would levy import taxes of 5-10% on an additional $75 billion of American imports. One set of tariffs is slated to start September 1, targeting U.S. crops, meats, and seafood. A second set, effective December 15, will put tariffs on U.S.-made cars and car parts. In total, these taxes are scheduled for more than 5,000 American products.

Friday evening, the White House announced two rounds of 5% increases on existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, to be successively implemented on September 1 and October 1. 3,4 

 

Powell Reflects at Jackson Hole

Friday, Jerome Powell delivered an address on monetary policy at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. He noted that the global economy currently presented a “complex, turbulent picture,” and added that the Fed was “carefully watching developments” and would “act as appropriate.”

Investors wonder if, at its September meeting, the central bank will consider another rate cut. Comments from other Fed officials at Jackson Hole did not indicate a consensus on that matter. 5

  

Leading Indicators Rise

The Conference Board, the business research group known for its monthly Consumer Confidence Index, also publishes a monthly Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) Index. The Conference Board’s LEI provides a forward-looking analysis of the health of the business cycle, looking at ten factors ranging from consumer expectations to stock prices to construction activity.

In July, the LEI rose 0.5%, following 0.1% descents in May and June. This sudden increase offers optimism at a time when investors are wondering about the momentum of the economy. 6

 

FINAL THOUGHT

Bond prices have risen around the world, leading to lower bond yields. In some instances, yields have turned negative. While the yield on the 10-year Treasury has also declined, it is still above 1.5%, notably exceeding the yields of similar-duration bonds in France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom. 7


TIP OF THE WEEK

Remember that you must itemize to claim a federal tax deduction for charitable contributions. It is to your advantage to itemize when your total individual deductions exceed the standard deduction amount for your federal tax filing status.


THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Conference Board’s July Consumer Confidence Index.

Thursday: The Bureau of Economic Analysis presents the second estimate of second-quarter economic growth, and the National Association of Realtors publishes new data on pending home sales.

Friday: July consumer spending data from the Department of Commerce, and July’s final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (a gauge of consumer confidence levels).

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, August 23, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Autodesk (ADSK)

Thursday: Abercrombie & Fitch (ABF), Best Buy (BBS), Lululemon Athletica (LULU).

Source: Zacks, August 23, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.


QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Whether it’s the best of times or the worst of times, it’s the only time we’ve got.”

ART BUCHWALD


Weekly Recap.png



Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)






This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [8/23/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [8/23/19]

3 - cnn.com/2019/08/23/business/china-tariff-products-soybeans-oil/index.html [8/23/19]

4 - marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-us-tariffs-will-increase-on-chinese-goods-2019-08-23 [8/23/19]

5 - marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-carefully-watching-developments-and-will-act-as-appropriate-2019-08-23-10103027 [8/23/19]

6 - conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 [8/22/19]

7 - cnbc.com/2019/08/20/investing-in-the-strange-negative-yield-world-its-very-hard-to-wrap-your-arms-around.html [8/20/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [8/23/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [8/23/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [8/23/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [8/23/19]


 

Weekly Economic Update August 12, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group


In this week’s recap: China jolts the markets by devaluing the yuan, aggregate second-quarter earnings top analyst projections, and stocks retreat for the week.


THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks spent much of last week rebounding from a Monday drop that reflected nervousness about the U.S.-China trade fight. By Thursday’s closing bell, the S&P 500 had regained all its Monday losses, but it descended again on Friday.

The three big U.S. equity benchmarks finished the week lower: the S&P declined 0.46%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.75%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.56%. A broad index of foreign shares, the MSCI EAFE, lost 0.95%. 1,2

 

China Devalues Its Currency

Last Monday, stocks fell 3% in reaction to the overnight weakening of the Chinese yuan. A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports cheaper for buyers who pay for them in dollars.

Critics quickly accused China of manipulating its currency to strike back at the U.S. The federal government plans to impose tariffs on nearly all Chinese products next month, likely making those goods more expensive to American consumers; a weaker yuan could counter the effect of those import taxes.” 3,4 

 

Earnings Season Update

Ninety percent of S&P 500 firms have now reported second-quarter results. Their collective sales and profits have surprised to the upside.

Stock market analytics firm FactSet says that overall earnings have beaten estimates by 5.7%. Seventy-five percent of firms have reported actual earnings per share surpassing estimates, which is better than the five-year average. 5

 

FINAL THOUGHT

We are seeing a significant bond rally this summer, even with interest rates at very low levels. (When bond prices rise, bond yields tend to fall.) At the moment, about a quarter of the global bond market is invested in government notes with negative interest rates. The 10-year Treasury stands in contrast. Friday, it was yielding 1.74%. 6,7


TIP OF THE WEEK

If you think you need to save more for retirement, think about saving at a rate that is slightly above your “comfort zone.” This calls for some financial discipline and dedication, but your future self may thank you years from now.



THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The July Consumer Price Index appears, reporting the country’s monthly and annual rate of inflation.

Thursday: July retail sales numbers from the Census Bureau.

Friday: The initial August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index presents the latest snapshot of household confidence in the economy.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, August 9, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Sysco (SYY)

Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO)

Thursday: Alibaba (BABA), Applied Materials (AMAT), Nvidia (NVDA), Walmart (WMT)

Friday: Deere & Co. (DE)

Source: Zacks.com, August 9, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.


QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Dignity does not come in possessing honors, but in deserving them.”

ARISTOTLE


Weekly Recap.png


Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [8/9/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [8/9/19]

3 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-04/asia-stocks-set-to-drop-with-trade-back-in-focus-markets-wrap [8/5/19]

4 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/china-hits-back-at-trump-with-weaker-yuan-halt-on-crop-imports [8/5/19]

5 - insight.factset.com/earnings-season-update-august-9-2019 [8/9/19]

6 - cnbc.com/2019/08/07/how-bonds-with-negative-yields-work-and-why-this-growing-phenomenon-is-so-bad-for-the-economy.html [8/7/19]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [8/9/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [8/9/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [8/9/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [8/9/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [8/9/19]

 

Monthly Economic Update July, 2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this month’s recap: Stocks, gold, and oil all surge, a door opens for U.S.-China trade talks to resume, and the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds dovish.

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

You could say June was a month of highs. The S&P 500 hit another record peak, oil prices reached year-to-date highs, and gold became more valuable than it had been in six years. (There was also a notable low during the month: the yield of the 10-year Treasury fell below 2%.) Also, a door opened to further trade talks with China, and the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve hinted at the possibility of easing. For most investors, there was much to appreciate. 1  

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

On June 29, President Trump told reporters, gathered at the latest Group of 20 summit, that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping were planning a resumption of formal trade negotiations between their respective nations. Additionally, President Trump said that the U.S. would refrain from imposing tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods for the “time being.” A six-week stalemate in trade talks had weighed on U.S. and foreign stock, bond, and commodities markets in May and June. 2

The Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate alone at its June meeting, but its newest policy statement and dot-plot forecast drew considerable attention. Among seventeen Fed officials, eight felt rate cuts would occur by the end of the year, eight saw no rate moves for the rest of the year, and just one saw a 2019 hike. The policy statement also removed reference to the Fed being “patient” about its stance on interest rates, and it mentioned economic and political “uncertainties” that may affect its near-term outlook. Stocks climbed after the announcement, and futures traders saw increased chances of a rate adjustment in either the third or fourth quarter. 3

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also moved the market on two other occasions during June. On June 4, stocks had their best day since January after he noted that the Fed was keeping a close eye on trade and tariff issues and would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” of the economy. Stocks had their poorest day of the month on June 25 after Powell commented that there was no need to “overreact” to a “short-term swing in sentiment” or incoming data. 4,5

Some of the latest data seemed to hint at economic deceleration. The much-watched Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector fell to a 19-month low of 52.1 in May. The latest Consumer Price Index showed less inflationary pressure; it had advanced 1.8% in the 12 months ending in May, falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. The annualized pace of wholesale inflation dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.8% in May. Perhaps, most importantly, the economy added only 90,000 net new jobs in May, down from 205,000 a month before. (The main unemployment rate stayed at 3.6%; the U-6 rate, a broader measure which includes the underemployed and those who have dropped out of the job market, descended 0.2% to 7.1%.) 6,7

Additionally, consumer confidence slipped. The Conference Board’s monthly index went from 131.3 in May to 121.5 in June (admittedly, the index had climbed higher for three consecutive months). The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index treaded water, ending June 0.3 points above its previous reading. 8,9

There were also encouraging signs, however. Retail sales rose 0.5% in May, according to the Census Bureau, and the Department of Commerce recorded a healthy 0.4% May advance for personal spending. The ISM’s nonmanufacturing PMI rose 1.4 points to 56.9 in May. 7,9

Early in the month, it seemed that trade negotiations between China and the U.S. were stalled. At the start of the month, President Trump proposed assessing tariffs on $300 billion more of Chinese imports (and he also talked of imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico, though this did not happen in June). Some optimism returned for investors when a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled for the month-ending Group of 20 summit in Japan. 8

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

Away from America, concerns about an economic slowdown grew. The central banks of Australia, Chile, India, and Russia all cut interest rates in June, in an effort to stimulate the economies of their respective nations. This was the widest wave of easing seen since the first half of 2016. Word came that IHS Markit’s Global Purchasing Managers Index, a respected barometer of worldwide factory activity, fell to 49.8 in May – an indication that global manufacturing was contracting. It was the weakest reading for the index in seven years. Markit factory PMIs for China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Germany were all soft enough to indicate less activity in May. 6,10

Markets in Europe benefited from comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who said that he was prepared to loosen monetary reins in order to stimulate lethargic economies of member nations within the European Union. Economists polled by Bloomberg believe that the ECB will cut its deposit rate to -0.5% during the third quarter. 11

This month, the United Kingdom will elect a new parliamentary leader. Former U.K. foreign secretary Boris Johnson and current U.K. foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt will face off, with the winner announced on July 23. Johnson is currently seen as the favorite, and he has pledged that the U.K. will make its Brexit from the European Union by Halloween, even without a deal. Analysts think his vow could lead to a fall impasse in Parliament, if the E.U. fails to agree to whatever new deal the U.K. proposes. 12

 

WORLD MARKETS

Several benchmarks recorded June gains of 3% or better. Argentina’s often-volatile Merval jumped 18.72%, the MSCI World index surged 6.46%, Russia’s Micex rose 5.98%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index gained 5.70%. Next in line, Singapore’s STI rose 4.94%. Brazil’s Bovespa added 4.75%; Taiwan’s TWSE, 4.34%; France’s CAC 40, 4.26%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, 4.21%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 3.99%, while Germany’s DAX rose 3.09%. June also brought a 2.37% gain for China’s Shanghai Composite. 13,14

India's Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex were notable June outliers. The Nifty lost 1.17%, and the Sensex declined 0.89%. 13

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Oil and gold certainly grew more valuable in June. As tensions heightened between the U.S. and Iran, West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 9.07%, finishing June at $58.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold gained 8.20% in June, rising to a June 28 settlement of $1,412.50 per ounce on the NYMEX. 15

Four other important commodities gained at least 5% last month. Unleaded gasoline advanced 5.61%; platinum, 5.50%; heating oil, 5.32%;  silver, 5.02%. Silver finished June at a NYMEX price of $15.27. 15

Other June gains: wheat, 4.41%; sugar, 3.55%; copper, 2.69%; coffee, 2.52%; soybeans, 2.50%; cocoa, 1.83%. June retreats: corn, 1.11%; U.S. Dollar Index, 1.45%; cotton, 3.07%; natural gas, 6.01%. 15,16

 

REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates fell in June. By the June 27 edition of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average interest on a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan was 3.73%, compared with 3.99% on May 31. Rates for 15-year, fixed loans also descended in this timeframe, from 3.46% to 3.16%. 17

30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

The latest data on home buying came from May. Existing home sales rose 2.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors – a nice change from the 0.4% decline in April. New home sales, unfortunately, slid 7.8% during May, and that followed a 3.7% April retreat. 7

Home prices flattened in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. (Data for May arrives in July.) In year-over-year terms, prices were up 2.5%. 7

Lastly, housing starts weakened 0.9% in May, according to the Census Bureau, but the pace of building permits issued increased 0.3%. 7

TIP OF THE MONTH

If you can reduce some of your fixed, monthly expenses in retirement, you may end up withdrawing thousands of dollars less from your retirement savings per year than you would have otherwise.

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

On June 21, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time peak of 2,964.03 in intraday trading. That was a high note in a strong month for the index. 1

The S&P surged 6.89% in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 7.19%; the Nasdaq Composite, 7.42%. As the closing bell rang on the last market day of the month (June 28), the S&P settled at 2,941.76; the Nasdaq, at 8,006.24; the Dow, at 26,599.96. 18,19,20

Prices of longer-term Treasuries rose in June, and correspondingly, their yields fell. On the first market day of the month (June 3), the yield on the 10-year note dipped under 2%; that had not happened since November 2016. 21

All this greatly improved the year-to-date performance for these benchmarks. At the June 28 close, the S&P 500 was at +17.35% on the year; the Dow, +14.03%; the Nasdaq, +20.66%. 18,19,20

This month, the current U.S. economic expansion became the longest on record. The economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter, by the assessment of the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the BEA’s initial estimate of Q2 economic growth is scheduled to appear July 26. The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting concludes on July 31. 5,9

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.

OSCAR WILDE

UPCOMING RELEASES

Here is the July schedule of news releases pertaining to fundamental economic and housing indicators: the June ADP employment change report and the June Institute for Supply Management nonmanufacturing index (7/3), the latest monthly employment snapshot from the Department of Labor (7/5), the latest Consumer Price Index (7/11), June retail sales (7/16), June construction activity (7/17), July’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (7/19), June existing home sales (7/23), June new home sales (7/24), the first estimate of Q1 economic expansion from the federal government (7/26), June consumer spending, the July Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board, and June pending home sales (7/30), and last, but certainly not least, a new Federal Reserve monetary policy statement (7/31). (The final July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is slated for release on 8/2.)

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - cnbc.com/2019/06/21/it-was-a-monumental-week-for-markets-with-major-milestones-in-stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil.html [6/21/19]

2 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-29/xi-trump-agree-to-restart-trade-talks-china-says [6/29/19]

3 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-19/fed-scraps-patient-rate-approach-in-prelude-to-potential-cut [6/19/19]

4 - foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-june-4-2019 [6/4/19]  

5 - apnews.com/36e95b56e88e444bb67d997b47b046d6 [5/29/19]

6 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/asia-factories-feel-trade-war-pain-led-by-south-korea-and-japan [6/3/19]

7 - investing.com/economic-calendar [6/28/19]

8 - thehill.com/policy/finance/450322-consumer-confidence-fell-in-june-amid-trump-tariff-threats-report [5/28/19]

9 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [6/28/19]

10 - global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx [6/25/19]

11 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/ecb-seen-cutting-rates-in-september-as-draghi-reloads-stimulus [6/27/19]

12 - reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/boris-johnson-says-he-is-serious-about-no-deal-brexit-threat-idUSKCN1TP2SR [6/24/19]

13 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [6/28/19]

14 - msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [6/28/19]

15 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [6/28/19]

16 - marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [6/28/19]

17 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [6/27/19]

18 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp [6/29/19]

19 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [6/29/19]

20 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq [6/29/19]

21 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/28/19]

22 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18]

Weekly Economic Update 7/29/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: stocks rise, data shows economic growth slowing from the first quarter, and the stage is set for further U.S.-China trade discussions.

The Week on Wall Street

Last week, investors assessed earnings and the initial estimate of second-quarter economic growth, while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next announcement about interest rates.

Stocks rose for the week; particularly, tech shares. The S&P 500 gained 1.65%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, adding just 0.14%. MSCI’s EAFE index, a gauge of equity performance in developed foreign markets, ticked up 0.01%., 1,2

  

Economy Grew Moderately in Q2

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast 2.0% Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter. The actual estimate, announced Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was slightly better at 2.1%. 3

While this is the poorest quarterly GDP number since the opening quarter of 2017, the decline in GDP largely reflects a decrease in business investment. Consumer spending improved 4.3% in Q2, and government spending rose 5.0%, which was the biggest quarterly gain in a decade. 3

 

China Trade Talks to Restart

U.S. trade delegates are scheduled to resume face-to-face negotiations with their Chinese counterparts, starting Tuesday in Shanghai.

This renewed effort to forge a bilateral trade pact could go on for some time. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, who is part of the U.S. delegation, told reporters last week that it would likely take “a few more meetings” before any kind of accord can be considered. 4 

  

What’s Next

Wednesday at about 2:00pm EST, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude its July meeting. Wall Street is eager to see what the Fed will do with interest rates. The question is whether traders have priced in expectations of a cut and how they may react if no cut comes.

TIP OF THE WEEK

When it comes to insuring your residence, remember that the right amount of coverage is based on what it costs you to replace your home, not just to reconstruct it. Some homeowners under-insure their homes and end up paying some rebuilding or repair costs out of pocket after a calamity.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The federal government’s June personal spending report and the Conference Board’s monthly index of consumer confidence.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve presents its latest statement on interest rates and monetary policy, and payroll titan ADP offers its July private-sector employment snapshot.

Thursday: The latest report on American manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management.

Friday: July jobs data from the Department of Labor and the University of Michigan’s final July Consumer Sentiment Index, measuring household confidence in the economy.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, July 26, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: RingCentral (RNG)

Tuesday: Apple (APPL), Mastercard (MA), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), Procter & Gamble (PG)

Wednesday: General Electric (GE), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday: Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Verizon (VZ)

Friday: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Toyota (TM)

Source: Zacks, July 26, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“To succeed, planning alone is insufficient. One must improvise as well.”

ISAAC ASIMOV

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [7/26/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [7/26/19]

3 - cnbc.com/2019/07/26/us-gdp-second-quarter-2019.html [7/26/19]

4 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/top-us-china-trade-negotiators-to-meet-in-shanghai-next-week-idUSKCN1UJ1JI [7/24/19]

Weekly Economic Update 7/22/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: stocks dip as earnings season begins; investors wait for the July Federal Reserve meeting, while considering retail sales data and comments from Fed officials.

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stock benchmarks retreated during the first week of the second-quarter earnings season. As some big names shared quarterly results, investors seemed more interested in what might happen at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

For the week, the S&P 500 declined 1.23%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite, 1.18%. International stocks, measured by the week-over-week performance of the MSCI EAFE index, were down 0.79%. 1-2

 

Households Bought More Last Month

Retail sales were up 0.4% in June, according to the Department of Commerce. Consumer purchases account for more than two-thirds of America’s gross domestic product, and data like this may rebut some assertions that the economy is losing steam. 3

Traders still expect the Federal Reserve to make a rate cut at the end of this month, even with low unemployment, solid consumer spending, and stocks near record peaks. Ordinarily, the Fed lowers interest rates to try to stimulate business growth and investment when the economy lags. After ten years without a recession, its new challenge is to make appropriate moves to ward off such a slowdown. 3 

 

Will Wall Street’s Expectations Be Met?

Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams noted that Fed policymakers could proactively adjust interest rates and take “preventative measures” to ward off a potential slowdown. A New York Fed spokesperson later said that Williams’ comments were “academic” and did not concern “potential policy actions.” Still, Fed Vice President Richard Clarida made similar comments last week, expressing the view that Fed officials “don’t have to wait until things get bad to have a dramatic series of rate cuts.” 4

Two other Fed officials – Esther George and Eric Rosengren – have publicly stated that they are not in favor of a cut. 5

 

FINAL THOUGHT

About 25% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week. In addition, the federal government will present its first snapshot of the economy’s second-quarter performance.

TIP OF THE WEEK
Beware of altering your investment mix in response to anxieties or short-term market fluctuations. Remember your time horizon and big-picture goals.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: June existing home sales figures appear from the National Association of Realtors.

Wednesday: The Census Bureau presents its June report on new home buying.

Friday: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its initial estimate of Q2 economic growth.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, July 19, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Celanese (CE), Halliburton (HAL), TD Ameritrade (AMTD)

Tuesday: Coca-Cola (KO), Texas Instruments (TXN), Visa (V)

Wednesday: AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Facebook (FB), PayPal (PYPL)

Thursday: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Intel (INTC), Starbucks (SBUX)

Friday: AbbVie (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), McDonalds (MCD).

Source: Zacks, July 19, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“If we could read the secret history of our enemies, we should find in each man’s life sorrow and suffering enough to disarm all hostility.”

-Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [7/19/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [7/19/19]

3 - cnbc.com/2019/07/17/the-feds-expected-rate-cut-not-supported-by-economic-data.htmll [7/17/19]

4 - thestreet.com/markets/stocks-climb-rate-cut-hopes-microsoft-earnings-15025435 [7/19/19]

5 - cnbc.com/2019/07/19/feds-rosengren-not-on-board-for-rate-cut-i-think-we-should-wait.html [7/19/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [7/19/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [7/19/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [7/19/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [7/19/19]

 

Monthly Economic Update

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this month’s recap: Stocks, gold, and oil all surge, a door opens for U.S.-China trade talks to resume, and the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds dovish.

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

You could say June was a month of highs. The S&P 500 hit another record peak, oil prices reached year-to-date highs, and gold became more valuable than it had been in six years. (There was also a notable low during the month: the yield of the 10-year Treasury fell below 2%.) Also, a door opened to further trade talks with China, and the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve hinted at the possibility of easing. For most investors, there was much to appreciate. 1  

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

On June 29, President Trump told reporters, gathered at the latest Group of 20 summit, that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping were planning a resumption of formal trade negotiations between their respective nations. Additionally, President Trump said that the U.S. would refrain from imposing tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods for the “time being.” A six-week stalemate in trade talks had weighed on U.S. and foreign stock, bond, and commodities markets in May and June. 2

The Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate alone at its June meeting, but its newest policy statement and dot-plot forecast drew considerable attention. Among seventeen Fed officials, eight felt rate cuts would occur by the end of the year, eight saw no rate moves for the rest of the year, and just one saw a 2019 hike. The policy statement also removed reference to the Fed being “patient” about its stance on interest rates, and it mentioned economic and political “uncertainties” that may affect its near-term outlook. Stocks climbed after the announcement, and futures traders saw increased chances of a rate adjustment in either the third or fourth quarter. 3

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also moved the market on two other occasions during June. On June 4, stocks had their best day since January after he noted that the Fed was keeping a close eye on trade and tariff issues and would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” of the economy. Stocks had their poorest day of the month on June 25 after Powell commented that there was no need to “overreact” to a “short-term swing in sentiment” or incoming data. 4,5

Some of the latest data seemed to hint at economic deceleration. The much-watched Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector fell to a 19-month low of 52.1 in May. The latest Consumer Price Index showed less inflationary pressure; it had advanced 1.8% in the 12 months ending in May, falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. The annualized pace of wholesale inflation dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.8% in May. Perhaps, most importantly, the economy added only 90,000 net new jobs in May, down from 205,000 a month before. (The main unemployment rate stayed at 3.6%; the U-6 rate, a broader measure which includes the underemployed and those who have dropped out of the job market, descended 0.2% to 7.1%.) 6,7

Additionally, consumer confidence slipped. The Conference Board’s monthly index went from 131.3 in May to 121.5 in June (admittedly, the index had climbed higher for three consecutive months). The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index treaded water, ending June 0.3 points above its previous reading. 8,9

There were also encouraging signs, however. Retail sales rose 0.5% in May, according to the Census Bureau, and the Department of Commerce recorded a healthy 0.4% May advance for personal spending. The ISM’s nonmanufacturing PMI rose 1.4 points to 56.9 in May. 7,9

Early in the month, it seemed that trade negotiations between China and the U.S. were stalled. At the start of the month, President Trump proposed assessing tariffs on $300 billion more of Chinese imports (and he also talked of imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico, though this did not happen in June). Some optimism returned for investors when a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled for the month-ending Group of 20 summit in Japan. 8

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

Away from America, concerns about an economic slowdown grew. The central banks of Australia, Chile, India, and Russia all cut interest rates in June, in an effort to stimulate the economies of their respective nations. This was the widest wave of easing seen since the first half of 2016. Word came that IHS Markit’s Global Purchasing Managers Index, a respected barometer of worldwide factory activity, fell to 49.8 in May – an indication that global manufacturing was contracting. It was the weakest reading for the index in seven years. Markit factory PMIs for China, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Germany were all soft enough to indicate less activity in May. 6,10

Markets in Europe benefited from comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who said that he was prepared to loosen monetary reins in order to stimulate lethargic economies of member nations within the European Union. Economists polled by Bloomberg believe that the ECB will cut its deposit rate to -0.5% during the third quarter. 11

This month, the United Kingdom will elect a new parliamentary leader. Former U.K. foreign secretary Boris Johnson and current U.K. foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt will face off, with the winner announced on July 23. Johnson is currently seen as the favorite, and he has pledged that the U.K. will make its Brexit from the European Union by Halloween, even without a deal. Analysts think his vow could lead to a fall impasse in Parliament, if the E.U. fails to agree to whatever new deal the U.K. proposes. 12

 

WORLD MARKETS

Several benchmarks recorded June gains of 3% or better. Argentina’s often-volatile Merval jumped 18.72%, the MSCI World index surged 6.46%, Russia’s Micex rose 5.98%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index gained 5.70%. Next in line, Singapore’s STI rose 4.94%. Brazil’s Bovespa added 4.75%; Taiwan’s TWSE, 4.34%; France’s CAC 40, 4.26%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, 4.21%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 3.99%, while Germany’s DAX rose 3.09%. June also brought a 2.37% gain for China’s Shanghai Composite. 13,14

India's Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex were notable June outliers. The Nifty lost 1.17%, and the Sensex declined 0.89%. 13

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Oil and gold certainly grew more valuable in June. As tensions heightened between the U.S. and Iran, West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 9.07%, finishing June at $58.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold gained 8.20% in June, rising to a June 28 settlement of $1,412.50 per ounce on the NYMEX. 15

Four other important commodities gained at least 5% last month. Unleaded gasoline advanced 5.61%; platinum, 5.50%; heating oil, 5.32%;  silver, 5.02%. Silver finished June at a NYMEX price of $15.27. 15

Other June gains: wheat, 4.41%; sugar, 3.55%; copper, 2.69%; coffee, 2.52%; soybeans, 2.50%; cocoa, 1.83%. June retreats: corn, 1.11%; U.S. Dollar Index, 1.45%; cotton, 3.07%; natural gas, 6.01%. 15,16

 

REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates fell in June. By the June 27 edition of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average interest on a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan was 3.73%, compared with 3.99% on May 31. Rates for 15-year, fixed loans also descended in this timeframe, from 3.46% to 3.16%. 17

30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

The latest data on home buying came from May. Existing home sales rose 2.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors – a nice change from the 0.4% decline in April. New home sales, unfortunately, slid 7.8% during May, and that followed a 3.7% April retreat. 7

Home prices flattened in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. (Data for May arrives in July.) In year-over-year terms, prices were up 2.5%. 7

Lastly, housing starts weakened 0.9% in May, according to the Census Bureau, but the pace of building permits issued increased 0.3%. 7

TIP OF THE MONTH

If you can reduce some of your fixed, monthly expenses in retirement, you may end up withdrawing thousands of dollars less from your retirement savings per year than you would have otherwise.

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

On June 21, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time peak of 2,964.03 in intraday trading. That was a high note in a strong month for the index. 1

The S&P surged 6.89% in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 7.19%; the Nasdaq Composite, 7.42%. As the closing bell rang on the last market day of the month (June 28), the S&P settled at 2,941.76; the Nasdaq, at 8,006.24; the Dow, at 26,599.96. 18,19,20

Prices of longer-term Treasuries rose in June, and correspondingly, their yields fell. On the first market day of the month (June 3), the yield on the 10-year note dipped under 2%; that had not happened since November 2016. 21

All this greatly improved the year-to-date performance for these benchmarks. At the June 28 close, the S&P 500 was at +17.35% on the year; the Dow, +14.03%; the Nasdaq, +20.66%. 18,19,20

This month, the current U.S. economic expansion became the longest on record. The economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter, by the assessment of the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the BEA’s initial estimate of Q2 economic growth is scheduled to appear July 26. The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting concludes on July 31. 5,9

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.

OSCAR WILDE

UPCOMING RELEASES

Here is the July schedule of news releases pertaining to fundamental economic and housing indicators: the June ADP employment change report and the June Institute for Supply Management nonmanufacturing index (7/3), the latest monthly employment snapshot from the Department of Labor (7/5), the latest Consumer Price Index (7/11), June retail sales (7/16), June construction activity (7/17), July’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (7/19), June existing home sales (7/23), June new home sales (7/24), the first estimate of Q1 economic expansion from the federal government (7/26), June consumer spending, the July Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board, and June pending home sales (7/30), and last, but certainly not least, a new Federal Reserve monetary policy statement (7/31). (The final July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is slated for release on 8/2.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - cnbc.com/2019/06/21/it-was-a-monumental-week-for-markets-with-major-milestones-in-stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil.html [6/21/19]

2 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-29/xi-trump-agree-to-restart-trade-talks-china-says [6/29/19]

3 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-19/fed-scraps-patient-rate-approach-in-prelude-to-potential-cut [6/19/19]

4 - foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-june-4-2019 [6/4/19]  

5 - apnews.com/36e95b56e88e444bb67d997b47b046d6 [5/29/19]

6 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/asia-factories-feel-trade-war-pain-led-by-south-korea-and-japan [6/3/19]

7 - investing.com/economic-calendar [6/28/19]

8 - thehill.com/policy/finance/450322-consumer-confidence-fell-in-june-amid-trump-tariff-threats-report [5/28/19]

9 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [6/28/19]

10 - global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx [6/25/19]

11 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/ecb-seen-cutting-rates-in-september-as-draghi-reloads-stimulus [6/27/19]

12 - reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/boris-johnson-says-he-is-serious-about-no-deal-brexit-threat-idUSKCN1TP2SR [6/24/19]

13 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [6/28/19]

14 - msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [6/28/19]

15 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [6/28/19]

16 - marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [6/28/19]

17 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [6/27/19]

18 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp [6/29/19]

19 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [6/29/19]

20 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq [6/29/19]

21 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/28/19]

22 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18]

Weekly Economic Update 6/24/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: Wall Street maintains its risk-on mood, even as tensions grow between the U.S. and Iran, influenced by a White House tweet and a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve. 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

The S&P 500 hit an all-time peak of 2,964.03, in intraday trading Friday, while improving 2.20% across five market days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite posted respective, 5-day advances of 2.41% and 3.01%. In addition, the MSCI EAFE benchmark of overseas stocks rose 2.58%. 1-3

A White House tweet and the latest monetary policy outlook from the Federal Reserve sent the bulls running. These were the top two financial news items in an eventful week – a week in which the value of West Texas Intermediate crude rose 9.4%, the price of gold went above $1,400 for the first time in six years, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2%. (Treasury yields fall when their prices rise, and vice versa.) 1

 

The Fed’s June Policy Statement

The central bank stood pat on interest rates this month, but the expectations of some of its policymakers changed. About half the 17 Fed officials who have a say in monetary policy now project either one or two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year. As recently as March, no Fed official saw grounds for a 2019 cut. 4  

Markets interpreted this shift as a sign that the Fed might soon ease. While a rate cut is by no means a given, traders now believe that the Fed will make either a quarter-point or half-point cut at its July meeting. 5 

 

Last Tuesday’s Market-Moving Tweet

A day earlier, stocks rose after President Trump stated that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping “will be having an extended meeting” at this week’s G-20 summit in Japan. 6 

Investors were encouraged by this note, sensing a chance for progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

 

Final Thought

With tensions persisting between Iran and the U.S., investors are keeping a close eye on both commodity prices and stock indices. Economic or geopolitical developments could heavily influence the short-term movement of the markets.

TIP OF THE WEEK

A no-exam life insurance policy may sound expedient and convenient, but keep this reality in mind: policies that are medically underwritten are usually more affordable than those that are not.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Census Bureau’s snapshot of May new home buying and the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index.

Thursday: The federal government’s third (“final”) estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product.

Friday: May consumer spending data from the Department of Commerce as well as the final June consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, another key gauge of consumer confidence.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, June 21, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Carnival (CCL)

Tuesday: FedEx (FDX), Micron Technology (MU)

Wednesday: General Mills (GIS), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Paychex (PAYX)

Thursday: Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

Friday: Constellation Brands (STZ)

Source: Zacks.com, June 21, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“If you want to be respected by others, the great thing is to respect yourself. Only by that, only by self-respect will you compel others to respect you.”

Fyodor Dostoevsky

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional

CITATIONS:

1 - cnbc.com/2019/06/21/it-was-a-monumental-week-for-markets-with-major-milestones-in-stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil.html [6/21/19]

2 - wsj.com/market-data [6/21/19]

3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [6/21/19]

4 - latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-fed-interest-rate-policy-20190619-story.html [6/19/19]

5 - cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html [6/21/19]

6 - cnbc.com/2019/06/18/trump-says-he-and-chinas-xi-spoke-will-have-extended-meeting-next-week-at-g-20.html [6/18/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [6/21/19]

 

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [6/21/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [6/21/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/21/19]

Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC

The LPL FInancial Registered Representatives associated with this site may only discuss and/or transact securities business with residents of the following states: AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, PR, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV.

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Weekly Economic Update 6/17/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: the major Wall Street equity indices see further June gains, oil investors react to tanker attacks, and retail sales improve. 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks advanced for a second straight week. The S&P 500 benchmark rose 0.47%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.70%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.41%. Overseas shares, as tracked by the MSCI EAFE developed markets index, added 0.20%. 1-2

The market seemed to put its recent preoccupation with trade issues aside, with attention shifting to this week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Traders in futures markets now believe the Fed will make a rate cut in July, so its June policy statement will be of great interest. 3

 

Oil Prices Roller-coaster

Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the busy oil shipping channel, helped to push the price of West Texas Intermediate crude 2.2% higher Thursday, just a day after a 4% fall. Even so, WTI crude lost 2.7% in five days, closing Friday at $52.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Investors wondered at mid-week if tensions in the Persian Gulf region would soon impact oil output and transport. Looking beyond the short term, however, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2020 projection for global oil demand. 4 

 

Households Bought More in May

Retail sales rose 0.5% last month, according to the Department of Commerce. Across the year ending in May, they advanced 3.2%. The previously announced 0.2% April retreat was revised into a 0.3% gain. 

These numbers affirm strong household spending this spring. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product. 5

 

WHAT’S AHEAD

In terms of news, Wednesday offers what may prove to be the biggest economic event of the week: a Federal Reserve policy statement and press conference.

TIP OF THE WEEK

Some people take out personal loans to pay off high-interest credit card debts. For some, this is a worthwhile financial move – but it has potential drawbacks. It can feel like exchanging one debt for another, and the conditions or behaviors that created the original credit card debt may remain.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve concludes a 2-day policy meeting, with Fed chair Jerome Powell addressing the media afterward.

Friday: The National Association of Realtors releases data on May existing home sales.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, June 14, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Jabil (JBL)

Wednesday: Kraft Heinz (KHC), Oracle (ORCL)

Thursday: Kroger (KR), Red Hat (RHT), Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Friday: CarMax (KMX)

Source: Zacks.com, June 14, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“It's hard to beat a person who never gives up.”

BABE RUTH

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [6/14/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [6/14/19]

3 - cnbc.com/2019/06/14/stock-market-middle-east-tensions-weigh-china-data-in-focus.html [6/14/19]

4 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-steady-as-market-keeps-watch-on-strait-of-hormuz-after-tanker-attacks-2019-06-14 [6/14/19]

5 - cnbc.com/2019/06/14/retail-sales-may-2019.html [6/14/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [6/14/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [6/14/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [6/14/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/14/19]

 

 Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC

The LPL FInancial Registered Representatives associated with this site may only discuss and/or transact securities business with residents of the following states: AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, PR, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV.

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Monthly Economic Update

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this month’s recap: major stock benchmarks descend as new developments in the U.S.-China tariff dispute lead to a broad risk-off in equities; consumer confidence surges, while the housing market cools.

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

Hopes for a quick resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute faded in May as discussions broke down and rhetoric from both sides turned tough again. The disappointment lingered on Wall Street: the month saw losses for stocks. On Main Street, consumer confidence was strong and inflation tame. Mortgage rates reached year-to-date lows, but the latest data on home sales showed weak spring buying. The price of crude oil fell significantly, and so did the yield on the 10-year Treasury. 1

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Last month, trade was the story, and tariffs were on the minds of market participants. On May 5, President Trump announced that U.S. import taxes levied on $200 billion of Chinese products would soon rise from 10% to 25% and that virtually all other goods arriving from China would “shortly” face a 25% tariff. China retaliated, declaring that it would hike tariffs already imposed on $60 billion worth of American products, effective June 1. More tariff developments followed. On May 17, President Trump opted to delay levies planned for imported autos until later in 2019, and he removed tariffs on metals arriving from Canada and Mexico. 2,3

Late May brought more attention-getting headlines. On May 29, China’s state media suggested that its government might consider banning rare-earth mineral exports to America. (China mines or produces about 80% of the world’s rare earths.) On May 30, President Trump announced that all of Mexico’s exports to the U.S. would face 5% tariffs starting on June 10; these taxes could rise to as high as 25% by October. 4,5

Households, meanwhile, felt good about the economy and their financial prospects in May. The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index rose nearly five points to 134.1; that was its best reading since November. (Confidence about the present economic situation reached its highest level since December 2000.) The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped to a 15-year peak of 102.4 at mid-month, and it ended May at 100.0. 6,7

Consumer spending rose another 0.3% in April, by the calculation of the Department of Commerce. Overall retail sales declined 0.2% in April, but core retail sales (minus auto and gas purchases) improved 0.1%. 6

Inflation advanced at a mild 2.0% in the year ending in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. The CPI rose 0.3% in the fourth month of the year. 6

The Department of Labor released its April employment report at the start of May, and the latest news on hiring was certainly impressive. April saw a net gain of 263,000 jobs, trouncing a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 190,000. The jobless rate fell 0.2% to 3.6%, nearly a 50-year low. The U-6 rate, which counts the unemployed, the underemployed, and those who have stopped looking for work, stayed at 7.3% for the third straight month. Wages were growing at a 3.2% annualized pace. 8

On May 1, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. While the Fed was not expected to make a move, some investors wondered if it was considering the possibility of a rate cut at some point before the end of the year. In fact, at the end of May, the market expectation was for the Fed to make two rate cuts by next January, with the first coming in September. At the central bank’s May 1 press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell did not refer to any kind of reconsideration of monetary policy, simply telling reporters that “we don’t see a strong reason for moving in one direction or the other.” 9,10

There was another yield curve inversion in the bond market: in the second half of May, the yield on the 3-month U.S. Treasury note exceeded the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. On May 29, the 3-month yield topped the 10-year yield by the greatest margin since the financial crisis. Economists pay close attention to these yield curve inversions; some believe they presage recessions. Yields on Treasuries decline when their prices rise, and vice versa; demand for Treasuries increased during May, as stocks retreated here and overseas. 11

As for other economic indicators arriving during May, the April Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index (based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers at large firms) fell 2.5 points to a decent 52.8 reading; ISM’s April service-sector PMI lost 0.6 points, descending to 55.5. Industrial output fell 0.5% in April; durable goods orders, 2.1%. 6,12

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

U.S. tariffs did seem to be affecting China’s factory sector, and by extension, its economy. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index displayed a May reading of 49.4, indicating contraction instead of expansion. 5

India was no longer home to the world’s fastest-growing economy. Last month, its government stated first-quarter gross domestic product of 5.8%, below that of China (which reported an official Q1 GDP of 6.4%). A June interest rate cut by India’s central bank is widely expected. 13

A change in leadership was ahead for the United Kingdom. Prime Minister Theresa May announced she would presently resign; her successor will likely take office in July. Boris Johnson, a fellow conservative, is widely considered to be the favorite in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Johnson has stated that the U.K. must make its Brexit from the European Union by the current October 31 deadline, deal in place or not. Some analysts now see a stronger possibility of a no-deal Brexit. 14

WORLD MARKETS

Aside from a few outliers, most foreign stock markets went the way of our stock market in May. Five notable benchmarks recorded monthly gains: Argentina’s often-volatile Merval rose 15.79%, Russia’s Micex added 4.14%, India’s Sensex and Nifty 50 respectively rose 1.75% and 1.49%, and Australia’s All Ordinaries improved 1.14%. 15

 

May losses were widespread. The MSCI World index fell 6.08%; the MSCI Emerging Markets index, 7.53%. China’s Shanghai Composite declined 5.84%; Japan’s Nikkei 225, 7.45%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, 9.42%. Mexico’s Bolsa lost 4.14% for the month; Canada’s TSX Composite, 3.28%. Germany’s DAX slipped 5.00%; France’s CAC 40, 6.78%. The regional FTSEurofirst 300 lost 5.50%. 15,16

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Softs and energy futures saw some big ups and downs in May. Unleaded gasoline fell 16.63% on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and crude oil (the West Texas Intermediate variety) slipped 15.93%. Crude finished May at $53.36 per barrel. May losses also came for heating oil (11.73%) and natural gas (4.16%). Three crops soared: coffee improved 14.42%; wheat, 20.61%; corn, 20.85%. Soybeans rose 4.40%. Among notable crops, the biggest loser was cotton, down 9.69%. 17

 

Gold outperformed other key metals, with a 1.75% rise to a $1,350.50 May 31 close on the NYMEX. Silver wrapped up May at $14.56, losing 2.31%. Copper fell 9.14% for the month; platinum, 10.71%. 17

 

REAL ESTATE

New and existing home sales numbers from April arrived in May, and there were declines in both categories. The National Association of Realtors said that the pace of residential resales weakened 0.4%, on the heels of a 4.9% retreat in March; the April NAR pending home sales index also dipped 1.5%. New home buying, according to the Census Bureau, slowed 6.9% in the fourth month of the year, following a (revised) 8.1% March gain. The latest 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed 2.7% annual appreciation in the year ending in March, down from 3.0% in the prior edition. 6

Residential construction activity picked up in April: the Census Bureau recorded a 5.7% advance for housing starts. Building permits rose 0.6%. 6

Mortgage rates dipped in May. A 30-year, fixed-rate loan bore an average interest rate of just 3.99% in the week ending May 30, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. In the last April edition of the PMMS (April 25), the interest rate on the 30-year FRM averaged 4.20%. Average interest on the 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage also declined in this timeframe, from 3.64% to 3.46%. 18

30-year and 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

TIP OF THE MONTH

If your teen or young adult children perform “odd jobs” to make extra cash, they are self-employed, and the money they earn from this work is taxable. Your children may be responsible for paying income taxes on such earnings, possibly through estimated tax payments.

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

Things did not go well on Wall Street in May, but the year-to-date advances of the three major U.S. equity benchmarks were still impressive, five months into the year. The Chicago Board Options Volatility Index, or CBOE VIX, a leading measure of stock market volatility, rose 42.61% in May, but remained down 26.40% YTD when the month wrapped up. The S&P 500’s real estate sector was the only one of its eleven industry groups to advance last month, and it had gained more than any other sector YTD (17.01%) when May ended. 1

So, what will it take to change the market’s mood, and how soon can such a change happen? Short of a quickly forged bilateral agreement between the U.S. and China, it may take quite a diversion to take Wall Street’s collective mind off trade. Throw in a recently inverted yield curve and assorted concerns about the business cycle slowing, and stocks may be in for a challenge in June. Perhaps the May jobs report, the June Federal Reserve policy meeting, or the G-20 summit at the end of this month (which could feature a meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi) may have an influence. For the record, the S&P 500 has only had 14 negative Mays in the past 40 years, and June gains followed eight of them. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Equities may face more turbulence this month as the markets attempt to sort out the many uncertainties. 22

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

“There is no chance, no destiny, no fate, that can hinder or control the firm resolve of a determined soul.”

Ella Wheeler Wilcox

UPCOMING RELEASES

Here is what is ahead in terms of major economic news in June… the May ADP payrolls report, the Institute for Supply Management’s May service sector PMI, and a new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve (6/5), the Department of Labor’s May employment snapshot (6/7), May wholesale inflation (6/11), May consumer inflation (6/12), the University of Michigan’s initial June consumer sentiment index and May retail sales (6/14), May housing starts and building permits (6/18), a Federal Reserve announcement following the conclusion of a 2-day monetary policy meeting (6/19), May existing home sales (6/21), the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index and May new home sales (6/25), May hard goods orders (6/26), May pending home sales and the “final” estimate of Q1 economic expansion from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (6/27), and then May consumer spending and the final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (6/28).

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [5/31/19]

2 - usatoday.com/story/money/2019/05/30/tariffs-pause-chinas-purchases-american-soybeans-report-says/1284336001/ [5/30/19]

3 - piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trump-trade-war-china-date-guide [5/31/19]

4 - staradvertiser.com/2019/05/29/breaking-news/china-dangles-potentially-harmful-new-threat-in-trade-war/ [5/29/19]

5 - foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-may-31-2019 [5/31/19]

6 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [5/31/19]

7 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-28/u-s-consumer-confidence-tops-forecasts-rises-to-six-month-high [5/28/19]  

8 - finance.yahoo.com/news/april-jobs-report-2019-220932515.html [5/3/19]

9 - bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/fomc-meeting-recap-april-may-2019 [5/1/19]

10 - cnbc.com/2019/05/29/the-market-now-thinks-the-fed-will-cut-rates-twice-by-january-2020.html [5/29/19]

11 - cnbc.com/2019/05/29/us-bonds-wall-street-monitors-fresh-batch-of-economic-data-auctions.html [5/29/19]

12 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [5/3/19]

13 - bbc.com/news/business-48478028 [5/31/19]

14 - theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/24/deal-or-no-deal-what-next-for-brexit-the-tories-and-the-country [5/24/19]

15 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [5/31/19]

16 - msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [5/31/19]

17 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [5/31/19]   

18 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [6/2/19]

19 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18] 

20 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [5/31/19]

21 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/31/19]

22 - barrons.com/articles/stock-market-in-june-51559257496 [5/31/19] 

 

Weekly Economic Update 6/3/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: U.S. benchmarks decline as trade issues remain front and center in the Wall Street conversation; major consumer confidence indices are notably high.

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks struggled during a 4-day market week as the U.S.-China trade standoff continued to weigh on the minds of market participants. From the Friday, May 24 close to the Friday, May 31 close, the S&P 500 retreated 2.62%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.41%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 3.01%. The MSCI EAFE index of overseas stocks dipped just 1.47% in a week. 1,2

Trade is dominating the conversation in the financial markets, with developments steadily unfolding. Wednesday, China’s state media suggested that the country could soon cut off exports of rare earths to the U.S. Late Thursday, the Trump administration announced 5% tariffs on all imports from Mexico, effective June 10; these taxes could rise in the coming months. 3,4

 

MEANWHILE, ON MAIN STREET…

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index soared to 134.1 in May, its highest reading since November; the consumer view of present economic conditions was the best since the end of 2000. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ended May at 100.00, near the 15-year peak of 102.4 seen earlier in the month. 5,6

Spring also brought a solid advance in consumer spending. April’s gain was 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 6 

 

FINAL THOUGHT

While Wall Street remains cautious and concerned about trade, consumers appear to be upbeat, sensing widespread economic prosperity. This underscores the fact that the state of the economy does not necessarily correspond to the state of the stock market (and vice versa).

TIP OF THE WEEK

A will commonly needs to go through probate, and it can also be challenged during the probate process. On the other hand, if you transfer the title of certain assets you own into a properly written living trust, those assets can avoid probate after your death.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: The Institute for Supply Management releases its latest factory purchasing manager index, which takes the pulse of the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on monetary policy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Wednesday: Payroll giant ADP releases its May private-sector employment snapshot.

Friday: The Department of Labor presents its May employment report.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 31, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Salesforce (CRM)

Thursday: Beyond Meat (BYND), J.M. Smucker (SJM)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 31, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The past is but the beginning of a beginning, and all that is or has been is but the twilight of the dawn.”

H.G. WELLS

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [5/31/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/31/19]

3 - tinyurl.com/y3qycvq6 [5/30/19]

4 - foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-may-31-2019 [5/31/19]

5 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-28/u-s-consumer-confidence-tops-forecasts-rises-to-six-month-high [5/28/19]

6 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [5/31/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [5/31/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/31/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [5/31/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/31/19}

Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC

The LPL FInancial Registered Representatives associated with this site may only discuss and/or transact securities business with residents of the following states: AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, PR, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV.

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Weekly Economic Update 5/20/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: tariffs and U.S.-China trade tensions once again become the talk of Wall Street, and U.S. stocks end up lower, week-over-week.

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks fell sharply at the start of last week over trade tensions, then recovered with help from strong earnings and indications that U.S.-China trade talks would continue. Even so, the major indices had a down week. The S&P 500 lost 0.76%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.69%.

In contrast, the MSCI EAFE benchmark for international stocks rose 0.19%. 1-2

 

THE LATEST TRADE DEVELOPMENTS

A broad selloff occurred Monday after China announced it would respond to increased U.S. tariffs by boosting its own import taxes on $60 billion of U.S. products. Friday morning, the Street breathed a sigh of relief as the Trump administration decided to delay 25% tariffs planned for imported cars and car parts; they had been slated to take effect on May 18. Just hours later, President Trump announced an end to U.S. tariffs on metals coming from Canada and Mexico.

At midweek, Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin told reporters that he expected the U.S. to resume trade negotiations with China in “the near future.” 3-5 

 

Earnings Season Winds Down

The first-quarter earnings scorecard is nearly complete, as more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual Q1 results.

Stock market analytics firm FactSet notes that 76% of these firms have beaten consensus earnings-per-share estimates. Overall earnings for S&P 500 components have surpassed expectations by 5.4%. Both of these percentages are above 5-year averages. 6

 

FINAL THOUGHT

The market is quite sensitive to trade developments at the moment, and it is unclear whether this will be a short-term trend or a long-term influence on prices. While the U.S. prepares its next moves, China is also preparing its response to any new U.S. tariffs, which could include manipulating its currency.

TIP OF THE WEEK

A small, but growing, percentage of companies now offer student debt assistance as an employee benefit. If you are looking for a new job and have outstanding education debt, research whether a potential employer can help you pay down your student loan balance.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The April existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors.

Wednesday: Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting.

Thursday: April new home sales figures from the Census Bureau.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 17, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: AutoZone (AZO), Home Depot (HD), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN)

Wednesday: Analog Devices (ADI), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT)

Thursday: Best Buy (BBY), Intuit (INTU), TD Bank (TD)

Friday: Foot Locker (FL)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 17, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Every great mistake has a halfway moment, a split second when it can be recalled and perhaps remedied.”

PEARL S. BUCK

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Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [5/17/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/17/19]

3 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/tough-talk-from-china-leaves-trade-talks-with-u-s-in-limbo-idUSKCN1SN207 [5/17/19]

4 - marketwatch.com/story/mnuchin-says-he-expects-to-go-to-beijing-to-continue-trade-talks-in-the-near-future-2019-05-15 [5/15/19]

5 - npr.org/2019/05/17/724357441/u-s-to-lift-tariffs-on-canadas-and-mexico-s-steel-and-aluminum [5/17/19]

6 - insight.factset.com/market-punished-sp-500-companies-reporting-negative-eps-surprises-in-q1 [5/17/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [5/17/19]

   

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/17/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [5/17/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/17/19]

 

Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC

The LPL FInancial Registered Representatives associated with this site may only discuss and/or transact securities business with residents of the following states: AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, PR, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV.

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Weekly Economic Update 5/13/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: domestic and international stocks sell off as higher tariffs go into effect for Chinese goods coming to the U.S., while the wave of notable initial public offerings continues.

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

As we noted recently, Wall Street has a wandering eye. Last week, it focused on the new tariff threats in the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute. Stocks fell across five trading sessions: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.12%; the S&P 500, 2.18%; the Nasdaq Composite, 3.03%. International stocks also fell: the MSCI EAFE index declined 3.06%. 

Earnings and big-name initial public offerings mattered little last week. Traders were more concerned about how consumers and corporations might be affected by higher import taxes in future quarters. 1,2

 

TARIFFS INCREASE

At 12:01 am on Friday, duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese products coming to the U.S. rose from 10% to 25%. Just days earlier, President Trump had tweeted that the U.S. might also tax another $325 billion of Chinese imports, mainly consumer goods.

While the proposed new taxes might take months to implement, institutional investors reacted negatively to this information, perceiving that trade talks were stalled. 3,4 

 

FINAL THOUGHT

A few weeks ago, market watchers noted the huge number of initial public offerings anticipated for 2019. One well-known tech firm completed its IPO on Friday, and the wave of tech IPOs is still building. According to research firm CB Insights, the average stock market valuation of the venture-capital-backed tech companies going public this year is $9.6 billion.

TIP OF THE WEEK

Getting married? Think about whether you want to keep your finances separate or create some joint investment and bank accounts. If you want a joint investment account, you will need to agree on the investment style

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: April retail sales figures from the Census Bureau.

Friday: The University of Michigan’s preliminary May consumer sentiment index, a measure of consumer confidence.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 10, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

Tuesday: Agilent (A), Ralph Lauren (RL)

Wednesday: Alibaba (BABA), Cisco (CSCO), Macy’s (M)

Thursday: Applied Materials (AMAT), Nvidia (NVDA), Walmart (WMT)

Friday: Deere & Co. (DE)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 10, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The possible’s slow fuse is lit by the imagination.”

EMILY DICKINSON

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [5/10/19]

 

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/10/19]

3 - cnn.com/2019/05/10/business/china-us-tariffs-trade/index.html [5/10/19]

4 - cnbc.com/2019/05/07/if-trump-slaps-china-with-all-the-tariffs-threatened-it-could-be-the-us-consumer-that-pays.html [5/7/19]

5 - nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/09/business/dealbook/tech-ipos-uber.html [5/9/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [5/10/19]

 

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/10/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [5/10/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/10/19]

 Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC

The LPL FInancial Registered Representatives associated with this site may only discuss and/or transact securities business with residents of the following states: AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, PR, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV.

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Weekly Economic Update 5/6/2019

Presented by Beacon Financial Group

In this week’s recap: the Federal Reserve stands pat on interest rates, key indicators show strength, and stocks end the week little changed.

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks were up and down last week, and the three major benchmarks ended up little changed after five trading days. The S&P 500 rose 0.20% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.14%.

The MSCI EAFE index, a benchmark for international stocks, declined 0.21%. 1-2

 

The Fed Emphasizes Patience

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its May meeting. Its May 1st policy statement noted “solid” job growth and economic activity, but only tame inflation pressure.

While the Fed was not expected to make a move, some investors wondered if its latest policy statement might hint at the possibility of a rate cut later this year. No such hint appeared. Fed chair Jerome Powell told the media Wednesday that “we don’t see a strong reason for moving in one direction or the other.” 3

 

Indications of a Thriving Economy

Employers added 263,000 net new jobs in April. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast a gain of 190,000. The jobless rate fell to 3.6% last month, the lowest in half a century.

This better-than-expected employment snapshot comes on the heels of a first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading that surprised to the upside. In another bit of good news, personal spending rose an impressive 0.9% in March. 4-5

Final Thought

On Wednesday and Thursday, stocks fell in the wake of the Fed policy statement. Friday, they more or less recouped their losses after the impressive April jobs report. Ups and downs like these come with the territory when you invest; the key is to stay patient and think long term instead of short term.

TIP OF THE WEEK

If you are young and want to make financial progress out of college, consider starting your career in a metro area where housing and living expenses are relatively low. Some of the most “exciting” cities to live and work in are also some of the priciest, with their millennial and Gen Y residents deeply in debt.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Friday: The April Consumer Price Index, monitoring monthly and annual inflation.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 3, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. Econoday Inc. is a technology and information company providing data and analysis for the financial industry, participants in the financial community, and individual investors. MarketWatch, a financial information website, is a subsidiary of Dow Jones & Company, a property of News Corp. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts are also subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons, including the shutdown of the government agency or change at the private institution that handles the material.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Tyson Foods (TSN)

Tuesday: Allergan (AGN), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Lyft (LYFT)

Wednesday: Green Dot (GDOT), Hostess Brands (TWNK), Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Thursday: AXA Equitable Holdings (EQH), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), News Corp. (NWSA)

Friday: Enbridge (ENB), Marriott International (MAR), Viacom (VIA)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 3, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.”

RALPH WALDO EMERSON

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.  Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

CITATIONS:

1 - markets.wsj.com/usoverview [5/3/19] 

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/3/19]

3 - bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/fomc-meeting-recap-april-may-2019 [5/1/19]

4 - nytimes.com/2019/05/03/business/economy/jobs-report-april.html [5/3/19]

5 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [5/3/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

markets.wsj.com/usoverview [5/3/19]

 

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/3/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/3/19]

 

 Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC

The LPL FInancial Registered Representatives associated with this site may only discuss and/or transact securities business with residents of the following states: AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, PR, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV.

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